Low Salmon Forecast will Constrain 2025 Season

An incredibly low ocean abundance forecast of king salmon, like pictured above, was presented to the public Wednesday by CDFW and fishery agencies.
Photo Credit: Photo courtesy of Lowell Wallace/Humboldt Charter Company

by Kenny Priest
2-27-2025
Website

Ocean and River Salmon Closures Likely

On Wednesday, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) hosted its annual 2025 Salmon Information Meeting where fishery agencies provided ocean salmon abundance forecast information to the public. And if these forecasts are accurate, Chinook salmon will once again be scarce this year in both the ocean and rivers. It will also likely result in another year of constrained fisheries, or another state-wide closure in an effort to protect stocks.

Both the Sacramento and Klamath river have incredibly low numbers of salmon swimming in the ocean according to CDFW. The forecast estimates for the Sacramento River fall Chinook, the predominant stock harvested in California fisheries, came in at 165,655 adults, one of the lowest forecasts since the current assessment method came into play in 2008. In 2024, the Sac ocean abundance forecast was 213,600, but the post season estimate came in much lower at 102,965.

The Klamath River Chinook forecast was announced at 82,672 adults swimming in the ocean, the lowest forecast since that body of water’s assessment method started in 1997. In 2024, Klamath ocean abundance was 180,700, with the post-season abundance coming in at 118,415.

These ocean abundance forecasts provide science-based advice to the Pacific Fishery Management Council during its annual salmon fishing season setting process that will take place over the next couple months. The first PFMC meeting will be held March 5-11 in Vancouver, WA. The Council will determine whether any in-season actions are required for fisheries scheduled to open prior to May 16. They will also craft three regulatory alternatives for ocean salmon fisheries in effect on or after May 16. Final adoption of alternatives for public review is tentatively scheduled for March 11. There’s a high probability that closures will once again be in place for all of our salmon fishing in 2025. And don’t be surprised if a couple of the ocean salmon alternatives included the words “closed.”

Please see the ocean salmon webpage at https://wildlife.ca.gov/Fishing/Ocean/Regulations/Salmon/Preseason for a complete calendar of events and contact information regarding the Salmon Preseason Process, including other opportunities for public engagement in the season-setting process. For information on the PFMC meetings, visit pcouncil.org/managed_fishery/salmon/

The weather ahead
According to Eureka’s National Weather Service office, warm and pleasant weather is on tap through Friday. “An abrupt change in the pattern will occur Saturday when an approaching trough drives in an associated cold front and brings in light rainfall. The trough will slowly progress in through the weekend, maintaining the chances for light rainfall. Total rainfall still looks low for the weekend, with, chances for over an inch ranging from 40 to 60 percent. Westerly winds will increase Sunday with the trough passing. Chances for wind gusts over 30 mph are high for the ridges and low to moderate for the coastal ridges and headlands. Chances for at least .25 inches of rainfall in 24 hours are moderate to high through much of next week, so there is a good shot of at least additional light rainfall.”

Perchin’ on the Peninsula makes its return in 2025
After a few-year hiatus, the Samoa Peninsula Fire District will be bringing back their Annual Perchin’ on the Peninsula Surfperch Fishing Tournament and Fish Fry/Oyster BBQ Fundraiser. The 11th annual event will be held on Saturday, April 26, 2025 at the Samoa Women’s Club, 115 Sunset Ave, Samoa. The fish fry fundraiser is open to the public and admission is only $10 for adults and $5 for juniors for just the fish fry. Adult fishing tournament entry is $20 and junior entry (under 16) is $10. Fish fry lunch is included with tournament entry. Lunch begins at noon, weigh-ins end at 2 p.m.

Tournament day registration is available at the Samoa Women’s Club. Entries can be purchased online at www.facebook.com/samoafire or Grundman’s, Pacific Outfitters, Bucksport, Ace Hardware in Fortuna, or A-1 Feed in McKinleyville, or Salty’s Bait in Trinidad. Tournament rules are available at all sign-up locations. For more information, call (707) 599-3383 or email samoafire@gmail.com. All proceeds are a direct donation to the Samoa Peninsula Fire District.

The Rivers:
Mad
The Mad was under 10 feet as of Thursday, but is still high and off color. It’s forecast to drop through Sunday morning when the next round of rain is forecast to arrive. It should have a hint of green by Saturday, but still pushy. Over 150 steelhead arrived at the hatchery Tuesday, so there’s still plenty of fresh fish making their way in.

Main stem Eel
The main stem Eel was running at 10,500 cfs as of Thursday, and is still big and dirty. It will continue to drop through the weekend, but the rain coming Sunday will push flows back up above 10,000 cfs by Monday night. It doesn’t look like it will drop down to a fishable flow for at least a couple weeks.

South Fork Eel
The South Fork dropped into fishable shape around Benbow Thursday where flows were 2,400 cfs at Miranda. It will fish through at least Saturday and possibly Sunday, but it all depends on when and how much rain falls at the slide in the Confusion Hill area. It has been off and on spilling mud this week.

Van Duzen
The Van Duzen dipped below 1,200 cfs Thursday and will continue to drop through Saturday. There’s a chance it could fish Friday and Saturday with flows falling below 900 cfs.  Another blowout is predicted for Sunday with flows going to back to 2,000 cfs.

Smith
The Smith dropped back into fishable shape Wednesday, when some boats chose to plunk and others drifted from the forks down in the high water. With no rain until possibly Sunday, conditions should be excellent the next few days. The next significant rise is forecast for next weekend. Boat traffic should be light this weekend as the Chetco should begin to fish on Friday. Fresh fish are still making their way through the lower river and a few downers have been caught as well.

Southern Oregon rivers
“Steelhead fishing was fair on the Chetco last week, with guides getting one to two fish a day, and plunkers picking up an occasional fish,” said Andy Martin of Wild Rivers Fishing. “The river blew out Saturday night and will be high through this week, although it could fish by Friday. The Elk also will come back into play. Rogue River anglers will begin fishing for springers as that river comes into shape.” 

Brookings ocean report
After a week of extremely rough conditions, the ocean should be fishable out of Brookings lingcod and rockfish beginning Thursday reports Martin. “Fishing has been good on calm weather days. Surfperch also are biting throughout the Brookings area.”

Kenny Priest operates Fishing the North Coast, a fishing guide service out of Humboldt specializing in salmon and steelhead. Find it on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and www.fishingthenorthcoast.com. For up-to-date fishing reports and North Coast river information, email kenny@fishingthenorthcoast.com.